2009 WNBA Season Preview

In less than a week, the 2009 WNBA season will tip off. Thirteen teams will each play 34 games to reach eight playoff spots to then try to become league champions. What will this new season be like?

The elephant in the room, of course, is the 11-player roster. From what I can tell, that’s 11 active players with two allowed on the inactive list—there is no injured reserve this season. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens as the weeks-long injuries start accumulating (high ankle sprains, broken phalanges, hamstring pulls). I’m still wondering how practices, especially for away games, are going to be affected by this. WNBA President Donna Orender has said that they are prepared for it, but wouldn’t give specifics.

June 1 also marked a new era in the WNBA/NBA world as the Phoenix Mercury became the first team to billboard their jerseys. Personally, as long as they make the team name prominent, and the advert is aesthetically integrated into the jersey design, I don’t mind much. Now, if it just looked tacked on and garish…then I’ll mind. [Have seen the jersey… looks like the team is the “Lifelock”s and not the Mercury as they replaced the team name instead of putting ad below the number… BLEH – CJ]

So…what about this year’s teams? Many are dragging their feet in cutting down their rosters. It’s no wonder. Some of the bubble players have performed reasonably well during the preseason…at least as good as some of the players who might have thought their positions were more secure. This is where the salary cap might come into play. The foot-dragging, though, has ensured that some players that might have been snapped up by another team aren’t simply because they are now also dealing with rosters that are (over-)full and not enough time to train to the team’s system. Bad deal for the players all around, I think.

But enough of the preliminaries, you want to see what I think of the teams themselves. Some teams have been cutting all during preseason, and are essentially complete at this point. Others still have their full preseason roster and are question-marks due to the larger number of cuts they have to make before opening weekend. As a result, the picture is a little clearer for some team than others.

Here we go, in alphabetical order by city:

Atlanta Dream

The biggest question mark in the league coming into this season. They changed a lot of personnel, gaining a lot of talent and experience. The marquee name has been Chamique Holdsclaw. Is she ready for her third go-round in the W? Twice now she’s left teams prior to season’s end? Will history repeat, or is she now prepared to spark this expansion team to make a playoff run?

They’ve certainly improved their inside game with the acquisition of Michelle Snow. Angel McCoughtry will add a boost, but her difficulties in shooting the three might hurt the Dream in close contests.

Verdict: A potentially solid team if the chemistry is correct, but maybe not quite this year for the play-offs.

Chicago Sky

So Big-Syl goes, so will go the Sky. It’s really that simple. Last season, the Sky were a very dangerous team, but had a gaping hole in the middle once Sylvia Fowles got injured (in a play that resulted in her getting the WNBA’s first goal-tending call). Fowles certainly showed her dominance with the USA National Team during the 2008 Olympics and in the off-season over in Russia.

Last season, Chicago had the makings of a playoff team. This season, with Fowles and (potentially) with the rookie Kristi Toliver to give the inside stars not only assists but relief with her outside shooting, just making the playoffs might be selling the team short.

Verdict: A playoff-caliber team, one more than capable of making a Cinderella run.

Connecticut Sun

One thing I’ve learned: do not bet against a team coached by Mike Thibault. However, his plans were derailed a bit by Amber Holt breaking her hand, which means she will be unavailable for the first 3-7 weeks of the season. That’s a hit, and start-of-season injuries like that aren’t exactly the sort of omen you’d like to have.

Still, the Sun are still a potent team. With Erin Phillips returned from missing last season to be with the Opals, the Sun became dangerous once again.

Verdict: I expect the Sun to make a strong run.

Detroit Shock

The 2008 WNBA champs enter the season very similar to last year’s team (and the year before, and the year before…). One can’t help but wonder if some of the veterans are starting to become too veteran? Will Cheryl Ford ever be healthy for usefully long runs?

It’s no secret that I’m not a Bill Laimbeer fan, going back to his playing days. Still, I have to give the man props for taking over a stick-a-fork-in-them franchise and taking them (and keeping them) at the top of this competitive league. Unfortunately for him, his own skill at doing this is beginning to hamper him as the league has figured out that if Laimbeer wants to deal, he’s figured out a way to snooker you.

Verdict: Tough as always, but injuries/inconsistencies might keep them from the mountain top.

Indiana Fever

I don’t have a lot to say about this team. The player movement seems to be more or less a wash, though Tully Bevilaqua will have a “Daniel-san” to train. For the most part, this looks like last year’s team. The question for them is Yolanda Griffith and her long-aching legs. Yo has been retirement fodder for many seasons, now. Will she make a difference, or will she just be taking up room under the cap?

Verdict: Pretty much the same as last year, though might only “just” get into playoffs.

Los Angeles Sparks

Candace Parker. She will not be MVP this year. In fact, she might not even be her team’s best player this year. I don’t expect her to be anywhere near last year’s form until August (assuming she rejoins the team by the end of June, as Lisa Leslie expects).

Even so, the Sparks may be a better team this year than last year. First off, they’ve improved their backcourt. Point guard was their obvious weakness last season, and though they don’t exactly have the best PGs in the league, it’s an improvement. Beyond that: Tina Thompson. She makes the difference with Parker out, and will be one heck of a go-to once CP3 returns to form.

Verdict: Can make a championship run if final-season-itis doesn’t distract the team.

Minnesota Lynx

Coach Don Zierden did a lot of deals in the off season. Did they help? Overall, I think so. I think he improved the team at guard and on defense so that the Lynx might finally get themselves over the hump.

Verdict: Could actually make the playoffs this year.

New York Liberty

There is a lot that is the same to this year’s Liberty. Why not? They were just a game away from making the finals last year. If there is any weakness on this team, it’s Janel McCarville because she’s so key to the fortunes of the Liberty. If she continues to play like she has the last season and a half, New York could go very deep in the playoffs again.

Kia Vaughn might just be the person who makes McCarville’s life a little easier. By letting McCarville assume her natural 4 instead of being an under-sized center, she’ll be an even bigger threat.

Verdict: Same as last year, give or take a playoff position.

Phoenix Mercury

Well…that was an interesting off-season. Productive? Helpful? Remains to be seen. I think the Merc lose at point with their trade of Miller and acquisition of Johnson. I think the playoffs last year showed the problem with an under-sized PG: they simply can’t see the possibilities as well. This forces Taurasi and Pondexter to assume lead Point-F and Point-G duties again.

It looks like this guard-heavy team got guard-heavier. They likely will not have Penny Taylor for at least half a season, and when she returns she will likely disrupt the offense for a few weeks as she tries to work into the line-up. As much as I love my Mercury, I’m not seeing year-round-playing Dee or Cappy being able to will the team to great heights.

Verdict: Miss the playoffs…and by more than “just barely”.

Sacramento Monarchs

There isn’t much major done to alter the building chemistry of this team. Like New York, they are trying to fine-tune what they had into something better. It looks like the winter season overseas has bumped up the games for Harper and Kelly, and that might be all that’s needed for this oasis of stability in the west.

Verdict: Deep into the playoffs.

San Antonio Silver Stars

Playing just one preseason game, the Stars are a bit of a mystery. There haven’t been any shocking moves. From the numbers of that one game, it looks like SA is going to be about where they were last year. Last year that meant a trip to the finals. Will they make it as far this year?

Verdict: Will likely make the playoffs.

Seattle Storm

Through the fall and winter, the Storm didn’t know if Lauren Jackson was going to stay or not. She held off on her decision until her international commitments were over. That indecision spurred the Storm to prepare in the event LJ didn’t return. As a result, they have recovered from the stumble of 2008 that was more about injuries and the personnel that weren’t available.

I think Seattle did a remarkable job building a team that could be a contender even without Jackson in the line-up. With her there, how good can they be?

Verdict: Could make the finals.

Washington Mystics

The front office of the Mystics sound like they are ready to commit to their team. This year we’ll see if that is indeed the case. They have a young team with strong players throughout. If Plank is the coach to lead them for more than a year (what a surprise that would be for the franchise), a strong, stable, and successful team might result — echoes of Sacramento.

Will this team that has been perpetually in a rebuilding mode since it was formed be able to crest the hill and become one of the fearsome foes of the league? Long term, certainly, if the owners don’t get skittish. Short term, it might be a lot to ask.

Verdict: Just misses the playoffs.

And there we have it, a quick take on all the teams. Never being one to shy away from embarrassing myself, I’ll even give a blind, totally unsubstantiated guess as to how things will shake out at season’s end. So many factors go into a team’s placement, especially team chemistry and timing of injuries, that this is never anything more than a shot in the dark:

WEST	EAST
Seattle Storm	Connecticut Sun
L.A. Sparks	Chicago Sky
Sacramento Monarchs	Detroit Shock
S.A. Silver Stars	New York Liberty
Minnesota Lynx	Indiana Fever
Phoenix Mercury	Atlanta Dream
	Washington Mystics

Who wins it all? Tough to say. This year has a lot more variables than most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Seattle v Sky final with Seattle winning.