Rec’ing on…2007 WNBA Playoff Preview

Now that the fields are set, I think it’s about time for me to make my fearless prognostications about the WNBA post-season. I can’t think of a better place to start than to look back at my pre-season thoughts (link).

On the whole, I don’t think I did too badly. While I thought that Seattle would be the powerhouse of the west, and they certainly weren’t, at least they did make the playoffs. My big stumble was with L.A. Have to say that I didn’t expect Holdsclaw to just abandon the team like that so early in the season. Still, it did open up a spot for my dark-horse team from the west, San Antonio…who did as well as I had hoped, but better than I expected. In the East, I thought either Washington or Chicago would take the last spot, but the re-emergence of McCarville ( a happy surprise, that) kind of shook up that scenario.

Overall, I was 75+% on the predictions. Not too awful.

But now, none of that matters. It’s playoff time. A time when players play even harder, refs let more go, and announcer after announcer bemoans the away-home-home structure several times a game (to which I say: get over it — the top seed wins an overwhelming majority of these series, anyway).

Detroit vs New York – This is a crazy sort of matchup. They split the series this season in four close games. On paper, this is a pick ’em. Detroit comes in with much more talent, but they aren’t playing their best ball, losing their final four games of the season. New York comes in winning their last three. The question is whether New York can carry their momentum, or if they are emotionally spent in their fight to make the playoffs. While I’m pulling for the Liberty (if only because I don’t like what Lambert brings to the games demeanor), I’ve got to think that the Shock having home court advantage will give them an edge. Detroit in 3

Indiana vs Connecticut – The fact that the Sun swept the series is telling. Even when the Fever are with Catchings, the Fever just don’t seem to have struck on the winning formula.  Of all the calls in the first round, this is the closest to a slam-dunk..  Connecticut in 2

Sacramento vs San Antonio – As with Detroit and New York, I think this is another one of those pick ’em series. They split the season matchups with each team winning on their home floors — this would seem to favor the Silver Stars. More than that, I think the Stars are hungrier than the Monarchs are. At this point in the season, Sacramento is starting to look a little tired. I’m going to say San Antonio in 3

Phoenix vs Seattle – On first blush, it’s tempting to say that Phoenix, with the best record in the west, should mop the floor with the .500 Seattle team. I think it’s more important to look carefully at their head-to-head matchup, which the Storm won 2-1. In the West, the Storm are the worst matchup possible for the Mercury. They have height and skill with Lauren Jackson, they have perimeter shooting, and they score lights-out when they play the Mercury…on their home court. Still, I think the Mercury will win this series simply because they are less battered than the Storm. As skilled as LJ is in this MVP-caliber season, I think the season might have been a long one for the Storm. Phoenix in 3.

And after that? Well, let’s just see how close I got with the first round. I know I thought before the season began that Detroit was the team to beat, and maybe they are, but Phoenix is even more on fire at the end of this season than they were at the end of last season (I think all of the running they do gets them into better end-of-season shape than the other teams). Is this the year of the rising Phoenix?