2009 WNBA Draft – Pre-tournament Scout
As we complete the last week or so of the regular season for most of Division I, I’ve started considering what the upcoming WNBA draft is going to look like. I like to make my selections now instead of tournament time because the one-or-done format can rob some prospects of equal consideration. Tournaments can raise the stock of some of the seniors outside the power conferences, but by this time we pretty much know who can do what.
We are also in an interesting lull as many of the power trades and signings in the WNBA’s off-season have already happened. There is still one huge mystery remaining as to the fate of Lauren Jackson. Will she choose Seattle or Phoenix, or will she perhaps decide to not play in the U.S. this summer? Play or no-play I think is about 85:15. If she chooses to play, I think it’s about 60:40 in favor of Seattle.
It needs to be noted that the WNBA decreased the per team roster from a max of 13 players to 11. They did this without changing the salary cap which means that there is less incentive to carry a rookie or two “just in case” or for practice. Combine this with the folding of the Houston Comets, and it’s going to be a tough draft for rookies to find a team. In some ways, it’s fortunate that the draft isn’t too deep. While the lottery players are likely to find spots, the pickings are going to be slim for even notable rookies beyond that, and we can pretty much kiss most of the draftees from the 2nd and 3rd rounds good-bye (though there might be one or two surprises).
And lest we forget: this is an off year for both Olympic and World Championships, which means that some international prospects might snag spots since they won’t have national team commitments. So… let’s see what’s the up:
Pick 1 – Atlanta Dream
With their off-season moves (especially the signing of Michelle Snow), it looks like Atlanta will mostly be in the market for a strong forward. That said, the best forward in the country (arguably the best player in the country) is Angel McCoughtry from Louisville. Her 23 points per game, nearly 10 rebounds, and 5 steals show that she’s strong on both ends of the floor.
Pick 2 – Washington Mystics
As I write this, Washington has 17 players on its roster. This is a team that is…I would say rebuilding, but they’ve yet to be really built. With the people already signed, they have absolutely no reason to draft a guard. Conventional wisdom says that playing in the East, Washington will need a “solid” center to counteract Detroit’s power in the middle, and therefore will have no choice but to draft Courtney Paris. While this CP3 does have the numbers, I’m not sure Washington wants or needs to take on a “project”. We’ve seen many over-optimum-weight bigs enter into the league only to show that while their size is an asset in bursts or certain situations, quick and fast teams (like many throughout the league) take advantage of their shortcomings. As a result, this CP3 has fallen in my rankings. Her sister, though, has gotten herself into shape and is more than a credible inside threat. For this reason, I’d go with Ashley Paris from Oklahoma.
Pick 3 – Chicago Sky
Chicago has a difficult choice. They could use a really committed point guard as well as improve their depth at forward. I think they might try for the two-fer with Marissa Coleman from Maryland. With Coleman they get a utility play who is used to not being the 1st option (and still got 2,000+ points). As she’s proven able at the point, she can step into that role as needed. Still, my gut says that Chicago might feel they are front-court heavy with Fowles and Dupree and other C’s and F’s. I think they’ll go with a point. Of the two on the board, I think Renee Montgomery of Connecticut fits their system better.
Pick 4 – Minnesota Lynx
If she’s still available, the Lynx will pick up Marissa Coleman with this pick. Minnesota’s front-court needs some work. While they might consider Courtney Paris, they need one more cog to take the heat off of Augustus and Anosike. Marissa’s utility and proven ability to score makes her a prime selection.
Pick 5 – Phoenix Mercury
If she wasn’t taken earlier, the Mercury will seek to add point guard Kristi Toliver from Maryland to replace the traded Kelly Miller. Playing at Maryland, Kristi has proven that she can play run-and-gun all game long. As with the rest of the Mercury, she’s a deadly 3-point shooter, and adequate (though not great) on defense. They’ll take Montgomery if she’s the only one available, but Toliver has clearly been the pick since the trade with Minnesota of Kelly Miller. (Also, the irony of Toliver and Bales on the same team is just too tempting for me not to make this pairing.) If both points are gone (which seems unlikely), whichever of the picks above that wasn’t taken will fit in just fine.
Pick 6 – Indiana Fever
Indiana needs a point guard to back-up and eventually replace Tully Bevilaqua. Unfortunately for the Fever, the top picks will likely have been taken. If not, they’ll go here. Despite this need, if the Mystics picked Courtney instead of Ashley, I think Ashley will get picked at this point. Even so, given the short roster and the players already on it, I think they might just go for position and surprise everyone by drafting Briann January from Arizona State. Though not a pure PG, she doesn’t have to carry a team at that position—at least, not this year.
Pick 7 – Sacramento Monarchs
The Monarchs could use a big to complement their two greyhound bigs of Williams-Strong and Harper. Courtney Paris of Oklahoma would be a good change of pace for the team. She doesn’t have to play up-tempo for 35 minutes, but can certainly manage 20. During that 20 she could cause considerable havoc with the teams in the less-bruising West.
Pick 8 – New York Liberty
New York needs the best player available who can score, especially from outside. I think that a trade is very possible here, but absent that, they might go with Shavonte Zellous from Pittsburgh. Her nearly 24 points per game and close to 40% average beyond the arc could be very attractive for a team that needs consistency from outside to make McCarville even more of a threat.
Pick 9 – Minnesota Lynx
At this point, I think the Lynx will go for the best forward that’s available. That means DeWanna Bonner of Auburn (though I could see New York picking her up with the 8th pick). She scores well, but might be undersized, even in the fleet-footed West.
Pick 10 – Connecticut Sun
Honestly, with Erin Phillips back, I’m not seeing a lot that the Sun need. Since they are lighter at center than other positions, I’ll go with Chante Black from Duke. She can score from the inside, but that might not be enough to make the cut. I think the Sun have their eyes on someone in particular, they’ll try to trade.
Pick 11 – Detroit Shock
I can’t see anything the Champion Shock need. If another team wants someone that’s still available, look for Detroit to deal. Otherwise, they’ll take the best out there which would probably be Lyndra Littles of Virginia.
Pick 12 – Seattle Storm
Seattle has been preparing for life without Lauren Jackson. If she comes, great, if not…they’ll pick Kia Vaughn from Rutgers as a place holder and try to trade or sign someone off of waivers (there will be a lot of ’em).
Pick 13 – Los Angeles Sparks
The Sparks need a point guard. Period. If last season showed anything, it was that. Sure, they need help for at least the first half of the season as they await the return of Candace Parker (and more weeks still for her to start getting back into shape), but no matter what, they need a point guard. As PGs are as precious as gold in the W, L.A. might have to do some dealing. Still, when they pick, they’ll go for either Whitney Boddie of Auburn or Kristi Cirone of Illinois State. Though Cirone has a better Assist-to-turnover ratio, Boddie gets the nod because of playing in the always challenging SEC.
And that covers the first round. I know my dropping down of Courtney Paris will be controversial, but I think giving the realities of this WNBA season, teams won’t want to have to support a player, even a potentially great player, if she can’t manage the physical day-in-day-out demands of the compressed WNBA schedule.
Truth be told, because I pick so early, I usually don’t even come close to what the final draft order will be. Many of the pundits have connections within the various teams that helps considerably in knowing what each team’s desires are. I haven’t a clue. I consider the players I’ve seen during the season, I look at their stats, and I check the rosters of the WNBA teams and consider the previous year’s performance. And then I guess.
What do you think will happen with this year’s draft?
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