Four Years Late

North Korea. Nukes. Missiles. Good idea? No! Year? 2002. Solution? Invade Iraq!

Huh? What? The choice for dealing with a Stalinist lunatic with nuclear weapons capability, and an eagerness to sow nervousness in it neighbors, is for the U.S. to send troops to a country that isn’t doing any significant WMD development? Oh yeah, the reason was to fight terrorism, but guess what…no terrorists there (to speak of) until the bombs started dropping. But…at the same time in the headlines we have this

known merde-head (pardon my French) saying he’s developing nukes, and if anyone tries anything, he’ll use them. Silly me, at the time I thought that was the real threat.

So, here we are four years later. The guy making everyone Il is still there and getting more and more dangerous. This spoiled little brat wants attention. He couldn’t get it four years ago, so now he’s started lobbing some test missiles in a pathetic game of "look at me"! If we’d spanked him four years ago, instead of a certain administration wanting to finish up an old grudge, it wouldn’t have been a problem. At the time, estimates were that the little wiener had a handful of low-yield nukes, at most, and some medium-range missiles. While he could do a little damage, the reality was that he probably couldn’t do much.

Today it’s a different story. He’s had time to build up. He’s had time to see that China’s mistaken idea that it can control him can keep him in the headlines for some time. He also sees a U.S. military so hobbled by the Middle East distraction that he’s in no real danger of being attacked. If this wasn’t a dangerous situation four years ago, it certainly is one now.

Do I think we’re going to have a limited nuclear war? Not really. Comparing his little pop-guns to what the nuclear powers have (including North Korea’s neighbors), even Baby-Il knows he’s a guppy in with the sharks.

The key players in this drama are going to be China, Russia, and the U.S. (as proxy of South Korea and Japan). Much rests on China realizing that their little communist "ally" needs a time-out. As for Russia, Putin has his hands full enough, and I think he’ll simply follow China’s lead in this little incident. As for the U.S….who knows. Given how stretched the military is at the moment, I’m not sure we can deal with the Il wind while also making a mountain out of a nuclear molehill with Iran. The situations are very different, but I don’t think the paranoia the administration seems to have with most of the peoples in the Middle East will allow them to concede that the Persian problem isn’t the one that’s the real concern.

What may happen (given recent history) is another diplomatic diferment. China and Russia will agree to some watered-down sanctions against North Korea. The brat will complain and will "test" a few more missiles, and then back down for a while. Once the spotlight turns from him back to Iran, he’ll have another tantrum (perhaps around the time of the Beijing Olympics) that will be enough for China to conduct military training exercises near the North Korean border. After that, it’s anyone’s guess.

It just irks me that four years ago I was shouting that North Korea was the problem, not Iraq.