Thoughts on USWNT After 2020 Tokyo Olympics

Two years ago I wrote an article following the 2019 World Cup (creatively titled, Thoughts on USWNT After 2019 World Cup). Now that the United States Women’s National Team (USWNT) has completed its 2021 campaign at the 2020 Olympic Summer Games at Tokyo, finishing with a bronze medal, I figured I should have a companion article to finish out this cycle.

CATCHING UP

It’s been an interesting couple of years for the USWNT. When I wrote that previous post, the head coach position was yet to be filled. Not long after that post, Vlatko Andonovski was installed in that coveted position. Given that the Olympics were scheduled to be less than a year away, he deferred major roster changes until after the games. As no one on the team opted to retire, and wanting to be the first to win a gold medal the Olympic games following a World Cup, it was an easy decision.

And then COVID-19 decided to ruin a plethora of plans around the world.

Needless to say, the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics was the biggest hit in the sports world. The impact on athletes who had planned to be mentally and physically at their peak in July/August 2020 were tossed to the wind. Additionally, their ability to train in the interim was constrained by strict lockdowns and safety procedures. The consequences of all of this, and more, played out with the USWNT.

The Big-O Fizzle

Despite a seemingly strong run-up leading into the 2021 Olympics, it’s fair to say that the execution was largely disappointing. All of the swagger and mojo from 2019 seemed to have leaked away from the team soon after the opening whistle in their first game, again frequent  tournament foe Sweden. There were flashes of confident play, but there was pretty much no point in the game where they looked like the better team.

The run of play was better (still not great) against New Zealand, but even then they were helped a lot with NZL own-goals. At the end of pool play, the game against Australia was simply an embarrassment. By the halfway point of the second half, both coaches seemed to have decided that their teams would play to a draw. While some commentators tried to spin it as “tactically smart”, the fact is it was an embarrassing (if not cowardly) exhibition. That the USWNT would ever play so cynically was heartbreaking.

(I do want to be clear that situationally playing defensively, even so far as going into a bunker, isn’t in and of itself a bad thing. But when you are a top team, and particularly when you are perennially the top-ranked team, playing not to lose is not exactly a strategy that inspires players or fans. Greatness requires a willingness to risk.)

The expectation of a turnaround in the quarterfinals didn’t happen. Yes, they played a little better, but if not for the standout play in goal of Alyssa Naeher with stopping a penalty kick and two shoot-out shots, the US would have had as early an exit as in 2016. The surprisingly uninspired play continued against familiar foe Canada and it finally cost them — instead of playing for a gold medal, they’d be trying grab hold of a bronze.

The bronze medal game featured a rematch of the pool-play tragedy between the USA and AUS. Finally, the USWNT played a game to the level they were expected to play throughout the tournament. It was bold, it was exciting, and each side most decidedly didn’t play not-to-lose — they fought to win from whistle to whistle. While the medal was won, to great relief to all supporting the USWNT, it was also a knell of what might have been.

Road To 2023

The next step for the USWNT is to set their eyes on the 2023 World Cup in Australian & New Zealand. (For those who wonder, until the more androgen-fueled World Cup is labeled Men’s World Cup, I opt not to genderize the other tournament as if it were “other” or “lesser”.) Given the events of the just-concluded cycle and roster realities, there are bound to be a number of changes. Since the gap between the Olympics and World Cup this time is just two years instead of the usual three, many of the changes are likely going to happen in the next year.

Head Coach

Understandably, questions have been published by the casual press about whether Vlatko is on the hot seat. Given how quickly Tom Sermanni was ousted following a disastrous Algarve Cup, which led to the hiring of 2-time World Cup winning coach Jill Ellis, the question isn’t without precedent.

I don’t think he’ll be fired at this time. I do think that there will be some discussions with US Soccer about whether a change in tactical emphasis might not be in the team’s best interest. I wouldn’t be surprised if he also pre-emptively does a mea culpa and suggests something similar.

Of course he’s got a bigger looming headache ahead of him: roster changes.

The Roster

It’s no secret that the US has an aging roster. Ideally, you want a core of pedigreed field players in their mid-twenties-to-early-thirties, a few older veterans on their last cycle who’ve been “through the wars” and can teach the others the high level expected of them, and some “youngsters”, some of whom might be fixtures for at least three cycles. The core of familiar and depended-upon faces on the current USWNT are very much in their 30s. While they’ve done great things, the sad truth of athletics is that as time goes on, steps get lost, techniques start to fail, and opponents have learned all your tricks.

Going into the next World Cup, a major factor is having a focus on the long-term health of the USWNT. Just because you might eek out one last tournament with a star, is it the best choice in the long run? There are definitely going to be discussions about that.

Here are the rostered players currently 30 or older:

• G Adrianna Franch (30)
• D Casey Krueger (30)
• M Kristie Mewis (30)
• F Alex Morgan (32)
• D Kelley O’Hara (32)
• F Christen Press (32)
• F Tobin Heath (33)
• G Alyssa Naeher (33)
• F Megan Rapinoe (36)
• D Becky Sauerbrunn (36)
• F Carli Lloyd (39)

If you add two years for the next WC, the list would then also include:

• D Abby Dalkemper (28)
• M Samantha Mewis (28)
• F Lynn Williams (28)
• D Crystal Dunn (29)
• M Julie Ertz (29)

It’s VERY IMPORTANT to say that age alone doesn’t mean much. Wear and tear, slowing down, being less mentally sharp — those matter. That said, those elements tend to go hand-in-glove with athletes aging.

You also have to factor in that most of the players listed above joined the national team when they were at least a decade younger than they are now. They replaced a previous pool of star and storied players who weren’t as healthy, or as fast, or as hungry. It’s the way of things.

But what about this group?

Forwards

I think Alex Morgan will stay for another cycle. Since recovering from giving birth, she’s as fast as ever. The only knock would be an increased wariness over putting her head in concussive situations. I also think Christen Press will stay if she’s afford more consistent starting. Lynn Williams seems like she’s on the bubble but in a favorable position because of her speed.

Megan Rapinoe admits that she’s lost a step, so I think she’s going to hang up the cleats. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tobin Heath does as well. The injuries have been piling up and have contributed to her losing a bit of mojo since 2018 when she held back-lines in fear.  As for Carli Lloyd…she’s intimated that she’d like to focus on life stuff while also dangling that she’s still in fine shape. Her biggest asset is that her determination to win is often catalytic for the rest of the team. [update: Carli Lloyd has announced her pending retirement]

So, my guess for likely WC2023 forwards:

• Alex Morgan
• Christen Press
• Lynn Williams

Midfield

Without a doubt, the midfield is the prime line on the team right now. Kristie Mewis is the only one not in her 20s by a handful of months. Except for injury or a stellar addition(s), there’s no reason for everyone on this line to not still be on the roster in two years.

My guess for likely WC2023 midfielders:

• Catarina Macario
• Lindsey Horan
• Samantha Mewis
• Julie Ertz
• Kristie Mewis

Defense

Defense is in a different situation than the other lines in that it’s been in flux for more than a cycle. The combination of speed and decision-making required by the systems typically employed by the USWNT ask a lot of defenders. As a result, those that standout are truly exceptional.

The captain of the team and anchor for the defense is Becky Sauerbrunn. She’s also the oldest and, truth be told, she’s lost at least half a step from her prime — which she makes up for in experience. Even so, we don’t have a replacement that’s as solid. No hint on her plans for the next cycle, but I think her status is pretty much up to her. Kelley O’Hara has been as reliable as you could ask a fullback. She knows when to attack and when to stay back. I could see her for the WC but Paris might be pushing it. Crystal Dunn has been the star on the other side of the pitch this past cycle. I do think she’s being overplayed as the speedy clean-up. Not sure how long her legs will be happy doing that and might benefit from a change in position.

While I can give Tierna Davidson a bit of a pass due to her youth, the rest have shown some annoying inconsistencies. Bad passes in dangerous areas are perhaps the biggest grievance, but there are other times of bad decisions or limits of ability that have kept the defense something head coaches constantly fret about. Expect to see some turnover as new player are brought into camps.

My generous guess for WC2023:

• Tierna Davidson
• Abby Dalkemper
• Crystal Dunn
• Kelley O’Hara
• Becky Sauerbrunn

Goalkeepers

It’s still true that Hope Solo is a tough act to follow. You do have to hand it to Alyssa Naeher, though…she’s come up big when asked. Being as ‘keepers tend to be in their prime later than other positions, there’s no reason not to expect her to continue being No.1 except for injury.

The question is where to go from there as this cycle is likely to be Naeher’s last. In my previous article I wrote: “The ideal choice would be someone with Casey Murphy’s size and Aubrey Bledsoe’s agility.” I still stand by that. None of the current corps is that.

Guess for WC2023:

• Alyssa Naeher

World Cup Lead-up Expectations

I agree with Julie Foudy when said that as this cycle was forward-based, the next one will likely be mid-field-based — meaning the experience and leadership will be from there. As I don’t see turnover in that area of the field, it seems a safe bet.

The forward position will see a lot of people getting first- or early- caps. There are a lot of good young forwards in the NWSL; now is the time to start bringing them in to see who will become the next-in-line star after Alex retires (possibly after Paris). As this Olympics has shown, a new cadre of clever and hungry goal scorers couldn’t hurt. Players like Ashley Hatch, Trinity Rodman, Bethany Balcer, as well as Malory Pugh and others will draw some consideration.

Defense is going to be an on-going headache. There really is no choice but to bring in new people to try to find a new combination everyone is confident about. The only one not currently on the obvious USWNT radar that springs to mind is Carson Pickett, who has improved every year since her debut and is worthy of being called into camp.

I don’t see Naeher’s reign ending this cycle. What I’d like to see is the team bringing in young talent that could last for 3+ cycles if they’re good enough. I mentioned that height and agility should be top wants as that’s the global trend. GK’s over 5’10” (178 cm), or better: over 6’0″ (1.83 cm) should be most sought after. Of course, players this size with agility are sought after in a plethora of sports, so the pool is still a little meager. Bringing both Casey Murphy and Bella Bixby into camp to start upping their games wouldn’t be a terrible idea.

Overall, I think US Soccer needs to think of even this shortened O-to-WC period as one of rebuilding and recommitting. Winning WC2023 should be on the radar but having an eye to winning WC2027 and WC2031 should be more of the focus. Let some of the pressure off of the team to find the path for the next generation. Even so…winning WC2023 wouldn’t be bad.

To that end, I do hope Andonovski learned that the USWNT is best when not overly managed. Research is great and in-game adjustments are wise in moderation. Having people know their positions isn’t a sin. But it’s very important to let players with this level of skill to have swagger — and that comes from letting them play. Insisting on excellence while still allowing the fun goes a very long way. Oh…and if you intentionally play for a draw again when winning is an option…you should resign. It’s unbecoming of a USWNT’s coach.