Thoughts on USWNT After 2019 World Cup

The United States Women’s National Team won the 2019 World Cup*. This was critically important for women’s soccer. It gives the USWNT leverage against the United States Soccer Federation. The USWNT and USSF have been butting heads for years about equivalently fair treatment and compensation in relation to the men’s national team. Had they not won the World Cup, that leverage wouldn’t have had so strong a fulcrum. It important for global women’s soccer because if the best team in the world — for decades — can’t get fair treatment, then what hope do they have going against patriarchal and corrupt segments of their own federations as well as FIFA? We are at a turning point, and this was the key win.

But that’s not the subject of this post. [Yeah, way to bury the lede, CJ.]

I want to muse about where the USWNT goes as we enter the next World Cup cycle. There is a new head coach to hire as Ellis has given notice. Olympics qualifying and Games are the next major non-friendlies coming in the next year. (And what’s with CONCACAF not automatically qualifying the World Cup winner? That’s…inconvenient.)

Aging Out

The first thing to consider for the next cycle is the age of the players. The USWNT was a “seasoned” team going into this World Cup. That means that this was the last for many of the older players. It seems likely that the following have seen their last WC:

• Ashlyn Harris
• Ali Krieger
• Carli Lloyd
• Megan Rapinoe
• Becky Sauerbrunn

With the following almost as likely:

• Tobin Heath
• Allie Long
• Jessica McDonald
• Kelley O’Hara

All those players are 30 or older and many of whom have had injury issues. I did still leave a few who are around 30 that I think will stick around, and be healthy enough, for the next WC:

• Alex Morgan
• Alyssa Naeher
• Christen Press

So that means I think that nine out of the 23 on the championship team will not make the team even if they are still playing well for their clubs.

This means that there will be a bit of a youth movement following the Olympics. This isn’t a bad thing. The pool of players in their mid-20s have shown they are ready to step in and play for team and country.

Forwards

I think Alex Morgan will start migrating back to the 10, or possibly a wing — if only to save herself from the beating that 9s tend to get. Christen Press is the most likely to take over the 9 with Mallory Pugh serving from out wide. That still leaves a lot of slots to fill.

There are also a number of promising young forwards playing in the NWSL, but until they start getting capped, it’s hard to guess if they’d fit. Kristen Hamilton is an obvious choice to bring into camp given the 2019 she’s been having. 

Midfield

Barring injury, it looks like the midfield is solid. Lindsey Horan, Samantha Mewis, Rose Lavelle, and Julie Ertz should be locks — especially if the new coach wants four in the middle.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some young attacking midfielders get a camp invite, including Midge Purce, Bethany Balcer, or a number of others.

Defenders

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Crystal Dunn remaining a presence. It’s not her preferred position, but clearly the US pool hasn’t delivered any obvious alternatives. Abby Dahlkemper will likely be the new wall in the middle possibly paired with Tierna Davidson. Casey Short can make a case for the right side, but she’s going to have to prove she wants it. Merritt Mathias is also due for another cap. Over all, this is the squirreliest of the lines as it was a problem throughout this past cycle. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be getting better.

Goalkeeper

(I’m going to talk more about this position as it’s the one I pay the most attention to.)

Alyssa Naeher did what she needed to this World Cup. As I wrote in a YouTube comment prior to the tournament:

The question [about goalkeeping talent] really doesn’t involve Hope at all. It’s whether or not Naeher is good enough on this stage with this team to win the cup. She’s not the best goalkeeper in the world like her predecessor was for years, but she is inarguably one of the top ten. She doesn’t have to be the best — just the best in that moment when that save that keeps the USWNT in the tournament has to be made. Will she rise to the occasion? Well…the games are played so we get an answer. [emphasis added]

In the semi-final against England, Naeher made a key save in the run of play as well as stopping a penalty kick. She was solid throughout the tournament, but those two saves were what made her into the USWNT keeper you can now see in her eyes. She’s 31, which means she’d be 35 for the next WC. While ‘keepers do tend to be at their peak a bit later in their careers than field players, wear and tear tend to catch up them.

The main strike against Naeher is that she doesn’t intimidate. One of the facets that made Hope Solo great was that she intimidated other players into trying to make tougher shots than they needed to. Otherwise, Naeher is a very solid ‘keeper who could stay between the pipes through the next cycle.

But if not her, then who? The obvious next choice is Adrianna Franch. The strike against her is that she will be pushing 33 at the next World Cup which means you’d get her for one cycle. The preference at this stage is to find a solid young keeper who could be a backup this cycle and the number 1 for the following two.

The ideal choice would be someone with Casey Murphy’s size and Aubrey Bledsoe’s agility. Those are rare. I think both should get some caps to see if they fit on the big stage. Murphy has the quickness problem that most larger goalkeepers have but also tends to slow down play needlessly. That can be worked on; besides, you can’t teach size. Bledsoe has been impressing for the last two seasons. She’s agile and intelligently aggressive. Her main strike is her size. She’s listed at 5’8″ (maybe?) which is the wrong direction for what is trending in the international game. Even so, talent can overcome a lot.

The current No.4, Jane Campbell, has been showing well in the NWSL. She’s the sort of aggressive goalkeeper the USWNT tends to prefer. That aggressiveness can confound her as it puts her out of position when staying home would have been the wiser choice. The things that work against her, and AD Franch, are the impressions they left in their most recent caps. Campbell simply got pushed aside, twice, in goal during corner kicks. Franch picked up a back pass and earned herself a penalty kick. Neither are irreparable, but they did leave the USWNT with lingering images.

My hope is that the new coach rotates keepers. Naeher should get full games about half the time and half games (at most) the other half until a clear No.2 is found. 

Coach

Who will be the next coach? I would not be surprised if it’s Paul Riley (NC Courage). He’s a championship coach who knows many of the players that are national team level (both at NC and his time at Portland). As long as he passes muster with the obligatory vetting and the players, I think it will be his job if he wants it.

Other NSWL coaches who’ve had success have been mentioned, but to me this seems like a one-horse race unless he turns it down or the new USSF GM (whomever that will be) makes a left field choice.

I do hope that the new coach continues the process of player and system evaluations through the middle of the cycle. The ripest target for opponents is one that doesn’t offer up surprises. Too many teams are now top level. The USWNT can no longer depend on talent alone to see them through.

Threepeat for a Fifth Star?

While I said before this World Cup that it was important that the USWNT win, I also said that I would not be at all surprised if they didn’t win the next two or three. The challengers are most definitely there. More importantly, for the game to get a stronger foothold, other teams have to show that this is indeed a global game.

Will the USWNT win at the Tokyo Olympics? With a new coach, that seems iffy. However, the team hates not avenging losses. They got ousted in the quarterfinals in 2016. That’s a result they’ll feel needs correcting. That said, they will be facing a lot of teams that played them well in the WC. Can the US win the Olympics? Yes. They have the talent. Will they? That all depends how they can mesh with the new coach and how the lineup changes between now and then. It should be interesting.

* Until the men’s edition gets a gender adjective prepended to it, I’m keeping it “World Cup” for both — neither more assumed than the other.