A Modest Proposal For Saving Most of Earth’s Threatened Species

There is an AP article out today that has the International Union for the Conservation of Nature in Gland, Switzerland reporting that 1 in 4 mammal species face extinction, and that 1 in 2 are declining. The report’s data outlines one common thread that, if managed, could save just about all of those species. All it requires is some herd thinning.

Yes, I’m talking about Homo sapiens sapiens. By simply reducing the overpopulation of just one species, just about every other species on the planet has a very good chance of recovering not only their numbers, but their niche in the complex weave of life’s tapestry. H. spaiens has had a more damaging impact to species in general than can be accounted for by any other, or perhaps ALL other, factors. Predation, habitat destruction, pollution of resources, even climate changes can find a common cause in the unrestrained population explosion of H. sapiens over the span of just 200 years.

From the emergence of H. sapiens (est. 10,000 BCE) until about 1815 CE, the global population remained at a sustainable number of less than 1 billion. In the nearly 200 years since, it has exploded to an est. 6.7 billion in late 2008. Here’s what that graph looks like:

Clearly something went wrong with nature’s checks and balances in regards to this not inconsequential species. Given the amount of resources it uses, regardless of habitat, clearly something must be done. The most logical approach, one that has been used for centuries with other populations, is thinning the herd. There are simply too many individuals utilizing an increasingly meager number of finite resources.

Sadly, because of the unrestrained numbers of this species, a rather drastic cut will have to be made across the board. Normally, in these matters, an effort would be made to spare breeding females, but given the scope of the problem indications are that doing that would simply be inviting a recurrence of this problem. Given the fact that this species is an apex predator, the fewer cycles of thinning, the safer it will be for the thinners.

As we can see from the graph, a lengthy period of non-threatened population stability occurred in the period between about 400 BCE and 1000 CE. This should probably be our target figure (erring on the side of caution): 250 million, or about 3.7% of the current global population. While this sort of reduction seems incredibly drastic, historical records show that H. sapiens thrived to little or no ill effect at these levels even when faced with pandemics.

If this sort of reduction can be made in short order, then it can be safe to estimate not only the recovery of all of the mammal species that aren’t in imminent danger of extinction, but also of most vertebrate, invertebrate, and plant species as well. There is also a likelihood that within one or two centuries, the climate will again reach an equilibrium consistent with that of the past few millennia.

How will we accomplish this without shocking the entire ecosystem? Obviously trying to exterminate 6.5 billion individuals of a species with the physical size of H. sapiens and then dealing with the carrion waste will be problematic at best. At worst it could spur enough disease and additional pollution of habitat that it could put at risk those who survive. Obviously a very managed program must be followed for the greatest effect and the least harmful impact. In an effort to preserve the necessary genetic diversity to ensure the health of the species, the process needs to be via a random selection so that no tree of the genome is artificially targeted or benefited.

Severely restricting births and halting medical services for the least fit individuals would allow the processes of nature to take their course over a reasonable time of, optimistically, less than a century. The global birth rate would have to be reduced to an average of about 4.2 million offspring per year. As the extant population dies from illness or accident, the global population could reach very near the target number in approximately 75 years. During that time, the artificial processes that had been established during the extreme rise in population would be able to be scaled back to a level manageable by the reduced generations.

The major difficulty in these drastic reductions is that species, especially localized groups within a species, tend to fight against population pressures in an effort to gain an advantage. It might be necessary to implement more drastic measures against these populations who work against the good of the species in this time of crisis. While there will surely be some unexpected births, as life always finds a way, any sort of organized attempt to subvert the goals of the thinning process should be dealt with decisively lest the entire project fail.

It is rare in the sciences for such a single, targeted approach to have such a profound effect on not only species, but global systems. As a result, it should be seriously considered as the alternative is both immoral and unconscionable. It has been amazing to witness how one apex predator, one without formidable natural weapons, could so dominate the rest of species. Generally predator numbers are moderated by resources or other, neighboring predators. H. spaiens has been a stunning exception. Amazingly, it will be the instrument of its own demise unless drastic steps are taken to stabilize its numbers and thus its ability to impact the ecosystem.

Sometimes the simple solutions are the best.