2008 WNBA Finals Pre-Series Thoughts: Detroit vs San Antonio

What an interesting road to the finals, eh? All of the 2008 playoff series up until this point have gone the distance. I think it’s fair to say that parity has hit the WNBA. Will the finals be any different?

Despite have the better season record, tops in the WNBA, the Silver Stars seem more like underdogs to the bad-girl Shock. I’m sure head coach Bill “Just call it on both ends” Laimbeer doesn’t like the sound of that. He much prefers that his team’s mentality is “us against an unfair world”. Why do you think he whines to the officials all game long…because he thinks they are that bad? No…it’s so his team gets upset that they “aren’t getting the calls” even when they are (or when the game is, in fact, being call fairly). ‘course, Dan Hughes is no slouch in this area, either. He manages to tweak the officials just enough: witness the lack of push-off calls on Becky Hammon at the end of game 3 of the conference finals even though they were obvious even to the partisan crowd.

From where I sit, there are three factors that will determine the series:

1. Three-point shooting – While Detroit doesn’t live by the three-point shot, they certainly die by it. If the guards are having a tough night, it’s not at all good for the girls in blue. Conversely, San Antonio will depend on Becky Hammon being “on” for at least three games of this series. If they are to win, Hammon will have to shot them there.
2. Injuries – When, to whom, and how badly the inevitable injuries occur will swing the fortunes of the teams in this series. Does Phoenix win the 2007 finals if Cheryl Ford is healthy? Maybe not. What about Plenette Pierson this year? Does the spark that helps make the Detroit engine go have it in her shoulder to make the difference? At this point in the very physical WNBA season, just about everyone is tweaked in some way. Now it’s a question of who can ride it out without something serious happening. In the Conference Finals, with both Darling and Lawson-Wade going down, the Stars showed how close that edge is.
3. Refereeing – This is the wild card. Detroit is a physical team with a lot of floppers. San Antonio’s front court has a problem with getting sometimes mysterious fouls called on them…Ruth Riley, especially. Given Ruth’s history with the Shock, I’m sure she’ll be a special target. If the cream of the WNBA officials manage the games and keep them from getting absurdly physical, then the better playing team will probably win.

San Antonio is fortunate to not only have home-court advantage, but so many players with experience at this season-end game. Hammon and VJ have been there many times before. Riley and Buescher have rings from previous teams. Will that be enough to overcome Detroit’s blustery confidence? I want to think so. Having to endure Laimbeer’s whining so sickens me that I just want him to lose, and unfortunately that would mean that some very deserving players would lose, too.

I’m not unbiased in this. I do not want Detroit to win, and the odds are even enough that I think either team could win the series on it merits. For some reason, though, I don’t think it will go to five.  It might, but I think momentum will let one of the teams take it in four. I just have no idea which team that will be.  So….a pick ’em in 4.